MONIToring economis crisis- XII
(Week IV, November 2007) CHINESE IN THE HOUR Topic This time NAGA OR Brahminy Kites greedy greedy? NAGA PROSPEROUS? REVIEW MARKET SHARE IN THE Negri: COMMENTS TO THE CONTENTS NEWSPAPER
NAGA OR Brahminy Kites greedy?
In the fasting month of Ramadan me some time ago to China, from Beijing to Hohhot, Baotou in Inner Mongolia (see map, Figure 1) where the area of mining of various minerals and the place of origin of Gengis Khan. Although this trip is looking for wind and nothing to do with investing, but a lot of information related to investment and the economy to be had on this trip. In addition, I found out that the people of China to the north and west rather be far more beautiful than the Chinese descent in Indonesia are mostly from the south.
Figure 1
China experienced a spectacular transformation in recent decades. If we go to Beijing 15-20 years ago, the highway is fulfilled bike. At least the picture is sterio-type of China. Now the view of the road congestion everywhere. Audi, Mercides, WV everywhere. Growth above 10% for many years not nonsense. The question is whether China had a bubble? And if it experienced a bubble, the question again is: how much? If it erupts, how it impacts the world economy? To answer the question it all, we can see the statistics of consumption, production and growth.China's GDP is approximately 4% of world GDP. Take a good look 4% of this figure. Because this figure is dominated by consumption and is the benchmark we will compare with the number "consumption" more. China consumes 9% of world crude oil production. Compare US with a GDP 20% of the world consumes 20% of world oil production. Indonesia with 0.4% of the world GDP, oil consumption 1.5% of world production was 0.4% of the world GDP. China's oil consumption patterns of consumption patterns is typikal countries rely on exports. In developed countries like the US and Germany, its oil consumption is proportional to its GDP (see Table 1 below).
China is also known as a country of hungry and greedy to consume commodities, so that materials soaring commodity prices. We'll see. China consumes 20% of world aluminum production, 30% -35% iron, iron ore and coal, as well as 45% of the world's cement production.Especially with regard to coal, I see myself, round trip bus from Bautou to Hohhot, horse riding and air-camels in the Gobi Desert, often encountered a convoy of big trucks hauling coal. So judging the consumption of these materials as 4-10 times compared to GDP. Do not be surprised if GDP growth over recent decades has always been above 10%. Consumption of these materials, except cement and not for their own consumption, but for export. Industrial growth in China reached 23%. Indonesia is only 2.6% appear stunted. Do not be compared to the US which can no longer grow the industry, especially manufacturing. The growth of Chinese industry so rapidly is actually more for export and not for domestic consumption. In percentage of GDP, Chinese exports less the same with Indonesia, which is slightly less than 40% of GDP. Although the two have in common is the industry's exports, but there is a fundamental difference from what was exported in the two countries. China's export of finished goods, while Indonesia exporting raw materials. China adds value on materials diimportnya and creating many jobs.While Indonesia only sells goods produced from the earth is, and creates few jobs (an average mining industry is capital intensive). That's a fundamental difference. Statistics of China (2006) GDP per capita :: $ 2,100 GDP - Purchasing power: $ 7.800 per capita Population: 1.322 million Industry Growth: 22.9% Exports: $ 1 trillion (38% of GDP) Balance Walking: $ 249.9 billion (9% of GDP) Public debt: 22.1% of GDP debt - external: $ 315 billion Exports - partners: US 21%, Hong Kong 16%, Japan 9.5%, South Korea 4.6%, Germany 4.2% (2006)Statistics Indonesia (2006) GDP per capita: $ 1.200 GDP - purchasing power: $ 3.900 per capita Population: 234,693,997 Industry Growth: 2.6% Export :: $ 102.7 billion (37% of GDP)Balance Walking: $ 9,686 billion (35% of GDP) Public debt: 38.6 % of GDP Debt - external: $ 130.2 billion Exports of finished goods / manufacturing is the main target of the Chinese economy looks to the amount of electricity production China, which reached about 280 thousand MW (250 million kWh per year, in 2006) and grew by almost 20% annually. The installed capacity of power generation reached 600 thousand MW. Production of electricity Indonesia dwarfed compared to China. Indonesia currently produces only 15,000 MW and will be increased to 21,000 MW in the year 2025. The capacity built per year in China is three times the capacity in Indonesia. The amount of electricity consumption is mainly for the industry. We will terlusuri where the flight of Chinese goods this. A definite 21% to the US, 16% to Hong Kong, 9% for Japan and 4.6% for South Korea. Hong Kong is not for their own consumption. Chinese small states will not be able to swallow export from China. So his run was exported again.
Where?Mostly to the US. What about Japan. Ditto ditto. Japanese exports to the US 22.8% of total export of Japan. South Korea, as well. Finally should be assumed that there is a fairly large portion of the materials of the commodity purchased China empties into the US. Dragon take, the kites are consuming. What if a large hawk that had a stomach ache subprime contact with the waste? The Dragons have not been able to eat it greedily. NAGA PROSPEROUS? If we look at the people on the streets of Beijing and compared to Jakarta, there is a vast difference. On the streets of Beijing, Bautou, Tian Jin or Hohhot, the day did not appear to people who are unemployed, if there are people, there is always something to do. Hardly visible-kongkow kongkow people watch passersby as becoming common sights in every corner of Jakarta, Jalan Thamrin, Sudirman or Gatot Subroto. Arguably diligent person. They (the people in Beijing and other major cities) just seems relaxed and enjoying life after the afternoon. I told the Chinese diligent because, for example in the case of camels and horses. When I camels in the Gobi Desert, initially I was reluctant because of his experience in Arabic, that the camel was always the smell of urine. When in the Gobi Desert, camel-camel leased absolutely no odor. Of course, such things as the camel-camel cage cleaned frequently and always clean. Also when in kagetan Donghuamen night market near Wangfujing in Beijing, which sells exotic food like scorpionsfried, fried silkworm, fried grasshoppers and so on. Once traders street hawker selling finished, they were together cleaning roads and pavements with detergents that clean at all. Compare with foot-five vendors in Jakarta. Slob.
Where?Mostly to the US. What about Japan. Ditto ditto. Japanese exports to the US 22.8% of total export of Japan. South Korea, as well. Finally should be assumed that there is a fairly large portion of the materials of the commodity purchased China empties into the US. Dragon take, the kites are consuming. What if a large hawk that had a stomach ache subprime contact with the waste? The Dragons have not been able to eat it greedily. NAGA PROSPEROUS? If we look at the people on the streets of Beijing and compared to Jakarta, there is a vast difference. On the streets of Beijing, Bautou, Tian Jin or Hohhot, the day did not appear to people who are unemployed, if there are people, there is always something to do. Hardly visible-kongkow kongkow people watch passersby as becoming common sights in every corner of Jakarta, Jalan Thamrin, Sudirman or Gatot Subroto. Arguably diligent person. They (the people in Beijing and other major cities) just seems relaxed and enjoying life after the afternoon. I told the Chinese diligent because, for example in the case of camels and horses. When I camels in the Gobi Desert, initially I was reluctant because of his experience in Arabic, that the camel was always the smell of urine. When in the Gobi Desert, camel-camel leased absolutely no odor. Of course, such things as the camel-camel cage cleaned frequently and always clean. Also when in kagetan Donghuamen night market near Wangfujing in Beijing, which sells exotic food like scorpionsfried, fried silkworm, fried grasshoppers and so on. Once traders street hawker selling finished, they were together cleaning roads and pavements with detergents that clean at all. Compare with foot-five vendors in Jakarta. Slob.
Figure 2: Rise of the Gobi Desert Camel
Figure 3: Market Wangfujing clean Shocked
I find it hard to compare which is more prosperous between China and Indonesia in relation to consumption. Maybe because I can see is her middle class. Most likely, the percentage of middle and upper class Chinese more than Indonesia. The price of food in Beijing is cheaper than in Jakarta. I ate five in a modest restaurant near the hotel Novotel Beijing, to trace many of which were then taken back to the hotel for the meal, only to spend 150 Yuan (USD 150 thousand). I am not sure you will get food with quality and the same number in the Rooster suharti or Mbok Berek. In the field of tourism, Forbidden City, Temple of Heaven, the Summer Palace, the Great Wall, Tiananmen Tiananmen and places other tourists are always full of tourists visited local , Beijing traffic is always dense and jammed. In fact, he said, Shanghai prohibit small cars to enter the city. Figure 4: Mongolian Horseman Possible Chinese consumption is not directed to the food or clothing. Automobile and electronic goods, local tourism could be the mouth of Chinese consumption. But it may be nothing or uneven. In the area of Inner Mongolia, as Bautou or Hohhot, state sekonsumtif in Beijing. It seems that the direction Chinese consumption channeled into property and stocks. Properties in major cities and share in some of this time rise and has reached the level bubble. Domestic flights seem busy. Bautou great service it seemed crowded with passengers. I think, the Adi Sucipto airport, Yogyakarta, either size or the capacity to accommodate users of air travel, no nothing compared Bautou airport. Imagine Bautou unknown city in Indonesia, it appeared very busy fulfilled its airport flight service users. Business moves.
Figure 5: The atmosphere in one of the lounge (gate) at a busy airport terminal Bautou. In short I can infer a theory that China is a production machine with diligent workers. Chinese consumption is limited in big cities, where people enjoy life. The rest results of their sweat run down savings, property and shares. Market products Chinese people's flight to US . Therefore Therefore, if consumption in the US is slowing, factories in China also stopped (slows down). If the factories in China, the demand for commodities also fell.
On the return trip tour of the Temple of Heaven (Temple of Heaven) My friend took a photo of a shop in front of the east exit of the Temple of Heaven. We will go back there again and mengecheck 3-4 years if the store was still there or not in 3-4 years later. We bet that the Chinese economy will crash landing.
REVIEW MARKET SHARE
The adherents of the theory of Dow Jones last week said that the main trend (primary trend) capital markets in the US officially entered the phase of Bear, which since November 21, 2007 when the Dow Industrial closed at 12799 below the closing level of the lowest in the month of August 2007 in 12845.8 (see Chart 1). Previously, the Dow theorists have cautioned their "non-confirmation" when the Dow Transportation did not join the rally along with the Dow Industrial.In other words, the adherents of the school of the theory of Dow Jones, will expect a "low" next will be lower than 12799, to major bearish trend is changing.
chart 1
Trading on Friday, November 23, 2007 the market experienced Rebounce by sheer volume. I would be very careful with this. There is a possibility the market will Rebounce for national sales days (Black Friday) in the US on Friday November 23 2007 after Thanks Giving Day, seems crowded enlivened by the buyers who raided shops. There is also the possibility the stock market had another selling pressure and ignore the "success" of its day nationwide US sales. I will use the time now until the end of the year to throw a short position because the market is already quite bearish (see Chart 2) and start collecting gold stocks will probably end the short-term correction. Investors are bullish already approaching the level in August 2007.It is better braced contrarian stance.
Trading on Friday, November 23, 2007 the market experienced Rebounce by sheer volume. I would be very careful with this. There is a possibility the market will Rebounce for national sales days (Black Friday) in the US on Friday November 23 2007 after Thanks Giving Day, seems crowded enlivened by the buyers who raided shops. There is also the possibility the stock market had another selling pressure and ignore the "success" of its day nationwide US sales. I will use the time now until the end of the year to throw a short position because the market is already quite bearish (see Chart 2) and start collecting gold stocks will probably end the short-term correction. Investors are bullish already approaching the level in August 2007.It is better braced contrarian stance.
Chart 2 IN Negri: COMMENTS TO THE CONTENTS NEWSPAPER Last week I read an analysis of the economy by Faisal Basri in the newspaper Kompas. Somehow I was moved to comment. Maybe because that day the taxi drivers were wrong, I thought Faisal Basri. So there is a kind of ego is disturbed. Imam Semar is not the same as Faisal Basri, Kompas, Monday, November 19, 2007 entitled ECONOMIC ANALYSIS - Problems There in the Internal Government. Faisal Basri: Government Securities and stocks traded on the Jakarta Stock Exchange back soon hunted by foreign investors or domestic. comments Imam Semar: for foreigners, it will not come to hunt. World recession and the yen carry trade will appear to come home. Even rupiahpun will sag. Moreover, if the subprime waste into Indonesia participated erupted. Rp 10,000 - Rp 11,000 per US $ visible not far from now. Pity the local retail investors, laymen and mother-housewife always entered at the end of mania. Faisal Basri: Inflows of investment portfolios, and coupled with the increase in the value of exports of a number of primary commodities whose prices soar, making the foreign exchange reserves increased significantly. In the second week of November, foreign exchange reserve has exceeded 55 billion US dollars. Comments Imam Semar: the figure of $ 55 billion dollars of money real (68.75 million ounces of gold) is under item 4 of last year ($ 28 billion or 78 million oz gold) , Real assets such as commodities really exchange for paper money. And ....., you'll see BI can carry traders struggled at times to leave and the economic stagflation of the next 3 years. We will discuss another time.
Comments Imam Semar: What do people in the government had no intention to solve the problem of the people? They prefer to play games with his power.
Problems formal actions Pondok Indah acquire resistance from the government with a communist-style stance. In some corner and crossroads appears a banner that reads: "You may ride Mercy, we need busway." The issue of communist and class antagonisms. I'm not sure this is the aspiration of "small people", because in addition to the mercy, there is still service users and providers of services (driver and kenet) minibuses, regular buses, public transportation and the motor. Motor, Mini Metro, Bus usual, and public transportation is also disturbed by the busway. So that it is the government putting up banners. People who are sane and alert not just believe that the contents of such banners. The cost of making banners that too expensive and needs to be some sort of coordination. Who else if not the government. The means Triad and Yakuza are not anathema to the Nazi SS, or the CIA or the authorities in general. Remember when Bush said: "You are with us or against us" as an attempt to intimidate a different opinion about the invasion of Iraq. Or the label "communist" by New Order or "revolutionary" by Sukarno's Old Order against a different opinion to the government. Lovely cottage residents threatened its security compromised, through forced demolition of portals that become barriers / deterrent for criminals who want to operate in Pondok Indah housing or the like. Portal for residents Pondok Indah is a security fence which should be the task of the police. The police in this case failed to provide security services (or what services they are supposed to provide). And the guard and forced portal was built to fill the police failed task. If the portal was dismantled by the government, the same government allow criminals to loot a house in Pondok Indah. I'm sure there's no point if a resident of Pondok Indah creating banners counterpoint, which reads: "You may use the busway, we need the course for Mini Metro, public transportation, bajaj , taxi, motorcycle, regular bus and private car / department / office. We also have equal rights ". Because the politicians are too arrogant. Therefore, I ask to perform Movement Empty Chairs . In the elections, the central, regional or anything, deliberately contrived sound cards do not apply (select all, for example). This is not "Abstentions", but what we want is emptying position has always misused.We do not need politicians who naturally liar. Teach these ideas to colleagues and acquaintances. I'm sure many who are fed up with politicians. And show we do not need them.Up here for this week. Take care of your health, savings and your investments carefully.
I wish you success.
Jakarta 25 November 2007.
Had the writing on and previous writings enough to stimulate your intellect, tell this site to colleagues, friends and relatives so that they too terstimulir intellectual.
Problems formal actions Pondok Indah acquire resistance from the government with a communist-style stance. In some corner and crossroads appears a banner that reads: "You may ride Mercy, we need busway." The issue of communist and class antagonisms. I'm not sure this is the aspiration of "small people", because in addition to the mercy, there is still service users and providers of services (driver and kenet) minibuses, regular buses, public transportation and the motor. Motor, Mini Metro, Bus usual, and public transportation is also disturbed by the busway. So that it is the government putting up banners. People who are sane and alert not just believe that the contents of such banners. The cost of making banners that too expensive and needs to be some sort of coordination. Who else if not the government. The means Triad and Yakuza are not anathema to the Nazi SS, or the CIA or the authorities in general. Remember when Bush said: "You are with us or against us" as an attempt to intimidate a different opinion about the invasion of Iraq. Or the label "communist" by New Order or "revolutionary" by Sukarno's Old Order against a different opinion to the government. Lovely cottage residents threatened its security compromised, through forced demolition of portals that become barriers / deterrent for criminals who want to operate in Pondok Indah housing or the like. Portal for residents Pondok Indah is a security fence which should be the task of the police. The police in this case failed to provide security services (or what services they are supposed to provide). And the guard and forced portal was built to fill the police failed task. If the portal was dismantled by the government, the same government allow criminals to loot a house in Pondok Indah. I'm sure there's no point if a resident of Pondok Indah creating banners counterpoint, which reads: "You may use the busway, we need the course for Mini Metro, public transportation, bajaj , taxi, motorcycle, regular bus and private car / department / office. We also have equal rights ". Because the politicians are too arrogant. Therefore, I ask to perform Movement Empty Chairs . In the elections, the central, regional or anything, deliberately contrived sound cards do not apply (select all, for example). This is not "Abstentions", but what we want is emptying position has always misused.We do not need politicians who naturally liar. Teach these ideas to colleagues and acquaintances. I'm sure many who are fed up with politicians. And show we do not need them.Up here for this week. Take care of your health, savings and your investments carefully.
I wish you success.
Jakarta 25 November 2007.
Had the writing on and previous writings enough to stimulate your intellect, tell this site to colleagues, friends and relatives so that they too terstimulir intellectual.
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